As the year ends, Palm State Mortgage is checking reports and collecting statistics. In a way, we’re going to discover what trends are “naughty” and what trends are “nice.” 
We are taking a good hard look at the last quarter of 2013.
Before we get completely distracted by the Holiday Season, we want to check out some numbers and find some forecasts. We are shaping a vision, not of “sugar plums,” but of what 2014 will bring us in the world of finance, mortgages and home or business ownership.
Trend Number One: A Look At New Home Sales
A new U.S. Commerce Department report stated that Sales of new homes on the United States jumped dramatically in October. We have recorded the biggest monthly increase in more than 30 years.
Let’s take a look at the numbers: “The 25.4% hike from the month before reflects an annual sales rate of 444,000 new homes…” By the way, this compares favorably when you realize new homes sales fell 6.6% in September. We are encouraged when we compare the records from October of last year and discover new homes sales increased 21.6%
Why are we just now telling you about September and October reports? The release of some of the numbers and studies were slowed down by the partial government shutdown in early October.What impressed us was that all four geographic regions posted double-digit home sales gains in October:
- Sales rose 19.2% in the Northeast.
- Sales went up 34% in the Midwest.
- In the South, the trend continued at a 28.2% gain.
- In the West we saw a 15.02% gain.
All these statistics prompted NAHB chief economist David Crowe to say, “We expect sales to continue to rise as pent-up demand is released and first-time home buyers creep back into the market.”
Conservative voices are not celebrating too loudly yet. Keeping watch on economic trends means watching all types of economic factors. Rick Judson, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders says, “However, the recovery continues to be slowed by political uncertainty in Washington”… He marks three constraints on a fast recovery for the housing industry:
1. There continues to be tight credit conditions for consumer.
2. The availability of labor and materials causes it to be difficult to build a surplus of new homes.
3. Finding favorable lots to build homes upon has become difficult.
Chairman Rick Judson should be aware of both the political and the practical report card on home ownership and the economic trends, because he continues to be a home builder from Charlotte, N.C.
Trend Number Two: Employment
Our economic watch also includes a look at the ADP National Employment Report. This document gave us insight into the nonfarm private sector employment.
1. We saw 215,000 jobs added in the U.S. in November. We must add that the November increase was the best increase in jobs so far this year.
2. In October we rose from a 130,000 to 184,000 job gain.
3. Almost as important as the improved numbers is who improved them! This year’s super Santa for job increases was small business. Small businesses led the added 102,000 jobs added.
4. Next, jobs in goods-producing employment rose by 40,000 jobs in November. Keep in mind that is up from 29,000 in October. So we know gift-shoppers will be finding holiday merchandise on the retail shelves. Last but not least, America added 18,000 jobs in construction and 18,000 more in manufacturing.
There were some recent surprises. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, stated, “The job market remained surprisingly resilient to the government shutdown and brinkmanship over the treasury debt limit.” He concludes optimistically, “Employers across all industries and company sizes looked through the political battle in Washington. If anything, job growth appears to be picking up.”
Palm State believes this is certainly the kind of good news that puts people in a holiday spirit.
Keeping The Home Fires Burning
We will continue to bring you the trends established by recent events, and we always welcome your financial questions as you move toward your goals as owners of home and business properties. Let us also be the first to send you our joyful greetings for the coming Holidays.
